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One macro trend explored in a recent Morgan Stanley blog article involves a steady rise in oil prices against a background of sustained global growth over the past five quarters. The increased demand for oil products, centered on powering heavy machinery, is tied to expanded international trade and industrial activity in emerging markets.
According to industry projections, Brent crude oil prices are likely to breach $85 a barrel by the end of 2019. In the process, oil costs will rise from 2.4 percent of global GDP in 2017, to more than three percent. This will boost the bottom line for producers and exporters of commodities, while impacting consumer pocketbooks in the form of higher electricity and gas costs.
This oil burden increase is characterized as moderate and linked with investments likely to boost overall productivity growth. For these reasons, the higher prices are not seen as significantly impacting aggregate global growth.